️ Highlights:
1. Australia’s population is expected to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, with annual population growth forecasted to increase from 1.3% in 2021-22 to 2.4% in 2022-23.
2. The estimated resident population of Australia is expected to grow from 26 million in June 2022 to 30.9 million by June 2034.
3. Net overseas migration is recovering, driven by a rebound in international students and other temporary migrants.
4. Net overseas migration is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024-25 as pandemic-related factors diminish and the Migration Strategy takes effect.
5. Both states and territories, as well as capital cities and regional areas, are expected to return to pre-pandemic population growth patterns by 2025-26.
Understanding Australia’s Population Dynamics Post-COVID-19
The 2023 Population Statement provides a comprehensive analysis of Australia’s population trends, particularly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. This statement offers insights into the expected patterns of population growth, migration, and demographic changes over the coming years.
Forecasting Population Growth
The statement forecasts an increase in annual population growth from 1.3% in 2021-22 to 2.4% in 2022-23, followed by a slight decrease to 1.9% in 2023-24. This growth rate is projected to gradually ease, reaching 1.2% by 2033-34. Australia’s estimated resident population is expected to grow from 26 million as of 30 June 2022 to 30.9 million by 30 June 2034.
Recovery in Net Overseas Migration
Net overseas migration, which had plummeted to record lows during the pandemic, is on a recovery trajectory, primarily driven by the return of international students and other temporary migrants like working holiday makers. This migration is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels from 2024-25, influenced by the waning of pandemic-related factors and policy directions outlined in the Migration Strategy.
State and Territory Growth Patterns
The statement projects that states and territories will return to their established pre-pandemic population growth patterns. Similarly, capital cities and regional areas are expected to revert to familiar patterns of population growth in the coming years, aligning with their long-run population trends by 2025-26.
Interactive Population Dashboards
The statement includes interactive population dashboards, providing detailed data on age and sex structure, national projections, state and territory projections, and capital city and rest-of-state projections. These tools offer valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and demographers in understanding the evolving demographic landscape of Australia.
Conclusion
The 2023 Population Statement is a crucial resource for understanding the demographic shifts and trends shaping Australia’s future. It highlights the ongoing recovery of the nation’s population post-pandemic and provides a detailed forecast of how Australia’s population is expected to evolve over the next decade. This information is vital for strategic planning and policy development across various sectors, ensuring that Australia is well-prepared to meet the challenges and opportunities of its changing demographic profile.
For more information please visit https://population.gov.au/publications/statements/2023-population-statement