Analyzing Melbourne’s Housing Market: A Dip in House Prices in November

⚡️ Highlights:

1. Dwelling values in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth experienced strong growth in November, with values rising by 1.2% in Brisbane, 1.2% in Adelaide, and 1.9% in Perth.

2. Melbourne saw a slight decrease in dwelling values (-0.1%), while Sydney only experienced a modest increase of 0.3%.

3. The increase in dwelling values in Melbourne and Sydney has slowed since the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the official cash rate on Melbourne Cup Day.

4. Sale listings have increased significantly in Sydney and Melbourne.

5. Despite the recent slowdown, dwelling values have still increased by 2.4% at the 5-city aggregate level over the November quarter and have rebounded by 9.8% since January, with all major markets except Melbourne showing strong growth. However, national house prices are now slowing due to higher mortgage rates, falling affordability, and rising stock levels, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

CoreLogic Data Reveals a Slight Decline Amidst Varied Trends in Major Cities

CoreLogic’s latest release of its daily dwelling values index up to 30 November 2023 presents a nuanced picture of Australia’s housing market, with a particular focus on Melbourne’s recent performance. This blog post examines the data and its implications for Melbourne’s housing market.

Key Findings from CoreLogic’s Report

  1. Varied Growth Across Cities: While the 5-city aggregate level saw a rise in values by 0.6%, driven by strong growth in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, Melbourne experienced a slight decline of 0.1%. Sydney’s housing values rose by only 0.3%.
  2. Melbourne and Sydney’s Deceleration: The rolling 28-day basis chart shows a sharp deceleration in dwelling values in Melbourne and Sydney following the RBA’s official cash rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day. However, Cameron Kusher from PropTrack cautions against overinterpreting this trend, noting that value growth typically slows around this time of year.
  3. Surge in For-Sale Listings: There has been a significant increase in for-sale listings in both Sydney and Melbourne, which could be influencing the market dynamics in these cities.

Quarterly and Yearly Trends

  1. Quarterly Increase at the Aggregate Level: Dwelling values increased by 2.4% at the 5-city aggregate level over the November quarter, led by Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth.
  2. Rebound Since January’s Trough: Since the trough in January, values have risen by 9.8% at the 5-city aggregate level, with all major markets, except Melbourne, recording strong recoveries.
  3. National House Price Slowdown: Despite these increases, national house prices are showing signs of slowing, particularly due to higher mortgage rates, falling affordability, and rising stock levels, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.

The Evolving Landscape of Melbourne’s Housing Market

The slight fall in Melbourne’s house prices in November, as indicated by CoreLogic’s data, reflects the complex interplay of economic factors, policy decisions, and seasonal trends in the housing market. While the overall Australian housing market shows signs of recovery since the start of the year, the recent deceleration in Melbourne and Sydney highlights the market’s sensitivity to broader economic conditions.

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