️ Highlights:
1. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence remains low at 82.8, marking 55 consecutive weeks below 85.
2. Mixed results across states, with Consumer Confidence up in NSW and QLD, but down in VIC, WA, and SA.
3. Current financial conditions show 20% of Australians feel ‘better off’ compared to 50% feeling ‘worse off’.
4. Short-term economic confidence is low, with only 10% expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy in the next year.
5. Buying intentions for major household items slightly improved, with 23% saying it’s a ‘good time to buy’.
In the latest update from February 20, 2024, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index remains virtually unchanged at 82.8, marking a record 55 consecutive weeks below the 85-point mark. This stability in consumer confidence reflects a complex interplay of economic factors and sentiments across Australia. Despite being 2.4 points higher than the same period last year, the index slightly trails behind the 2024 weekly average of 83.6.
State-by-State Variations
Consumer confidence exhibited mixed results across the states, with New South Wales and Queensland experiencing increases, whereas Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia saw declines. This fluctuation contrasts with the previous week’s trends, indicating the regional nuances in economic perceptions and consumer sentiment.
Financial Conditions and Economic Outlook
- Current Financial Conditions: Approximately 20% of Australians report being ‘better off’ financially than last year, a slight increase from previous figures. However, 50% feel ‘worse off’, highlighting ongoing financial pressures on households.
- Future Financial Conditions: Expectations for the coming year are evenly split, with 33% of Australians optimistic about their financial prospects, balanced by an equal percentage anticipating tougher times ahead.
- Economic Confidence: Short-term economic confidence dipped, with only 10% of Australians expecting ‘good times’ over the next twelve months. Conversely, 31% foresee ‘bad times’, reflecting cautious economic outlooks.
- Medium-term Economic Confidence: Sentiments regarding the economy over the next five years worsened slightly, with 21% expecting ‘bad times’, despite 13% maintaining a positive outlook.
Consumer Spending Intentions
The willingness to purchase major household items saw a modest improvement, with 23% of Australians considering it a ‘good time to buy’. This contrasts with 50% who view it as a ‘bad time’, underscoring the cautious spending behavior prevalent among consumers.
Expert Insights
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, notes that consumer confidence has stabilized above all weekly results in 2023 following the February 5 update. Despite a sharp decline in confidence regarding both short- and medium-term economic outlooks, influenced by the recent rise in the unemployment rate, the overall sentiment remains above the 2023 averages. This resilience in household financial conditions, even amid rising inflation expectations, suggests a complex landscape of consumer confidence in Australia.
Conclusion
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index’s steadiness in mid-February 2024 underscores the nuanced and varied economic sentiments across Australia. While financial pressures and economic uncertainties persist, the slight improvements in spending intentions and financial well-being reflect the adaptive and resilient nature of Australian consumers.