ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rises Amid Black Friday and Cyber Monday Sales

⚡️ Highlights:

1. Consumer Confidence in Australia has increased by 2 points to 76.7, but it has remained below the mark of 85 for a record 43 consecutive weeks. It is also 6.9 points lower than the same week last year and below the weekly average for 2023.

2. Consumer Confidence varied across different states in Australia, with increases in New South Wales and Queensland, a decrease in Victoria and South Australia, and little change in Western Australia.

3. Only 20% of Australians believe their families are financially better off compared to last year, while the majority (55%) believe they are worse off.

4. Looking ahead, only 27% of Australians expect their families to be financially better off next year, the lowest figure in over three years. Meanwhile, 40% expect to be worse off, marking the lowest net rating for this question in 34 years.

5. Buying intentions for major household items improved for the second consecutive week, with 23% of Australians considering it a good time to buy. However, a declining plurality (49%) still believe it is a bad time to make such purchases.

A Detailed Analysis of the Latest Consumer Confidence Trends in Australia

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index has shown a notable increase, rising by 2 points to 76.7 this week. This uptick in consumer sentiment is largely attributed to the heightened buying intentions during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales period, marking the highest level for this indicator in ten months since January 2023.

State-by-State Consumer Confidence Trends

  • New South Wales and Queensland: These states witnessed a significant rise in consumer confidence.
  • Victoria and South Australia: Conversely, these regions experienced a decline in consumer sentiment.
  • Western Australia: Consumer confidence remained relatively unchanged.

Key Indicators of Consumer Confidence

  1. Current Financial Conditions: Approximately 20% of Australians report that their families are financially better off than last year, while 55% feel worse off, indicating mixed sentiments about personal financial situations.
  2. Future Financial Conditions: Looking ahead, 27% of Australians expect to be better off next year, though this is the lowest figure for this indicator in over three years. Conversely, 40% anticipate being worse off, reflecting a cautious outlook.
  3. Current Economic Conditions: A small segment (8%) of Australians foresee good times for the economy over the next twelve months, while 40% predict challenging times ahead.
  4. Future Economic Conditions: Long-term economic sentiment has improved slightly, with 12% expecting good times over the next five years, against 22% anticipating bad times.
  5. Time to Buy a Major Household Item: There’s a notable increase in the number of Australians (23%) who believe now is a good time to buy major household items, the highest figure in ten months, influenced by the recent sales events.

Commentary from ANZ Senior Economist

Adelaide Timbrell, ANZ Senior Economist, commented on the increase in the Consumer Confidence Index, attributing it to a rise in the subindex related to buying major household items. This subindex reached its highest point since early February, buoyed by positive buying sentiment during the Black Friday sales weekend. The confidence rebound was particularly noticeable among those paying off their homes, although it remained lower compared to other housing cohorts.

A Mixed Economic Outlook

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence data presents a complex picture of the Australian economy. While there are signs of optimism, particularly in consumer buying intentions, the overall sentiment remains cautious, reflecting concerns about personal finances and the broader economic landscape.

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