️ Highlights:
1. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased by 4.4 points to 80.8 after the RBA’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
2. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 45 consecutive weeks below the mark of 85.
3. Consumer Confidence is currently 2.1 points lower than the same week last year and nearly 3 points above the 2023 weekly average.
4. Views on personal financial situations and the Australian economy’s performance drove the increase in Consumer Confidence, while buying sentiment remained largely unchanged.
5. A higher percentage of Australians believe their families are better off financially compared to last year, but expectations for future financial conditions have declined slightly.
Similarly, expectations for the Australian economy have improved in the short term but declined in the longer term. Buying intentions for major household items remained relatively stable.
Evaluating the Surge in Consumer Confidence Following RBA’s Interest Rate Decision
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index witnessed a significant jump, rising 4.4 points to 80.8, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to keep interest rates unchanged in its final meeting of the year. This increase marks the highest level of consumer confidence in over ten months since early February 2023. However, it’s notable that Consumer Confidence has remained below the 85-point mark for a record 45 consecutive weeks.
State-Wise Trends and Key Drivers
Consumer Confidence saw an uptick in most Australian states, including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia, though it slightly declined in South Australia. The major contributors to this week’s increase were improved perceptions of personal financial situations and a more positive outlook on the Australian economy’s performance. However, buying sentiment remained largely unchanged.
Detailed Insights into Consumer Sentiments
- Current Financial Conditions: Over a fifth of Australians (22%, up 3 points) now feel ‘better off’ financially than last year, the highest figure for this indicator in over nine months.
- Future Financial Conditions: Looking ahead, 31% (down 1 point) of Australians expect to be ‘better off’ financially next year, while 33% (down 3 points) anticipate being ‘worse off’.
- Current Economic Conditions: A slightly increased 9% (up 1 point) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next twelve months, the highest figure for this indicator in over 18 months.
- Future Economic Conditions: Expectations for the economy over the next five years have improved, with 13% (up 2 points) of Australians expecting ‘good times’, and only 18% (down 4 points) anticipating ‘bad times’.
- Buying Major Household Items: About 20% of Australians believe now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 53% think it’s a ‘bad time to buy’.
Expert Commentary
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, highlighted the impact of stable cash rates and rising home prices on homeowners’ confidence. She noted that inflation expectations are at their second-lowest in six months, and economic confidence has markedly improved. However, a significant portion of households still do not consider it a good time to buy household items, despite seasonal discounting.
Conclusion
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment among Australian consumers, buoyed by the RBA’s decision to maintain stable interest rates. While the overall confidence has improved, the mixed sentiments towards buying major household items indicate an ongoing cautious approach among consumers in the current economic climate.