1. The implications of climate change in Australia are profound and will have far-reaching effects, including increased flooding, coastal erosion, and fire risk. Planning to minimize further warming and deal with the implications is an immediate challenge.
2. The current pattern of development, particularly low-density housing on the urban fringe, may not be sustainable given future environmental risks. Areas at risk of fire and flood hazard are growing, making it necessary to reassess future development opportunities.
3. There is a social justice argument against developing housing in distant new suburbs without proper infrastructure. This can lead to increased disadvantage and housing in marginalized areas. Building in areas at risk of extreme weather events could also result in uninsurable properties and significant economic impact.
4. Densification of cities is seen as a potential solution, but the market is governed by a belief that families prefer detached housing with a yard. Lack of family-friendly and affordable apartments leads to higher-density areas with few services catering to families. Planning policies and requirements for greater diversity of housing types are needed.
5. Construction of high-density dwellings is a major source of carbon emissions, but retrofitting existing obsolete buildings and using sustainable construction materials can help reduce the carbon footprint. Building and planning regulations should focus on incorporating green infrastructure and public spaces to mitigate emissions. Ensuring flexibility in the built environment to adapt to new market pressures and provide a diversity of housing stock is crucial.
Exploring the Complexities of Urban Planning in the Face of Population Growth and Climate Change
Richard Thornton, a seasoned population forecaster, delves into the intricate factors shaping the growth of Australian cities and the challenges in making them adaptable. He identifies three critical factors that urban planners must reconcile: population growth, land use and development constraints, and the pressing issue of climate change.
The Impact of Climate Change on Urban Planning
The recent COP 28 summit underscored the urgency of addressing climate change, with a growing consensus that we are nearing a critical point to prevent catastrophic global warming. Australia, a country already grappling with natural disasters, faces profound implications from climate change, including increased flooding, coastal erosion, and heightened fire risks. These realities necessitate immediate action in urban planning to mitigate further warming and adapt to these changes.
Population Growth and Housing Challenges
Thornton’s work at .id, a company providing nationwide population forecasts, reveals the complexity of housing Australia’s future population sustainably. With an expected growth of 9.6 million people by 2046, the question arises: how can we accommodate this growth in a way that is sustainable and addresses the risks of climate change? The current pattern of development, particularly in areas prone to environmental risks, may not be sustainable in the long term.
The Dilemma of Urban Fringe Development
A significant portion of Australia’s population growth is forecasted to occur in the outer suburbs of major cities. However, the sustainability of low-density housing in these areas is questionable, given the increasing environmental risks. For instance, the City of Blacktown had to significantly reduce its new home capacity due to these risks. Moreover, developing housing in distant new suburbs without adequate infrastructure could exacerbate social justice issues.
The Question of Urban Densification
While densification is often proposed as an alternative to fringe growth, the challenge lies in changing the entrenched residential development patterns and market perceptions. The lack of family-friendly and affordable apartments in urban centers perpetuates the demand for detached housing with yards. This situation calls for more aggressive planning policies and possibly state government intervention to demonstrate the viability of diverse housing types.
Addressing Carbon Emissions in Construction
The construction of high-density dwellings, while necessary to accommodate population growth, is a significant source of carbon emissions. Sustainable construction practices, retrofitting existing buildings, and incorporating green infrastructure are essential to reduce the carbon footprint of new developments.
Ensuring Flexibility and Adaptability in Urban Environments
To cater to future growth and environmental pressures, urban environments must retain the flexibility to adapt to new market pressures and provide diverse housing stock. This requires careful planning to avoid locking up areas in ways that hinder future redevelopment or perpetuate current practices due to cost constraints.
The challenges of building adaptable cities in Australia are multifaceted, involving a delicate balance between accommodating population growth, mitigating climate change impacts, and ensuring social justice and equity. Urban planners and policymakers must urgently address these issues to ensure that Australian cities remain desirable and safe places to live for future generations.