️ Highlights:
1. The national Home Value Index (HVI) in Australia rose by 8.1% in 2023, marking a significant improvement from the 4.9% drop seen in 2022, but still lower than the 24.5% surge in 2021.
2. December’s increase of 0.4% was relatively small, resulting in a soft monthly rise in home values to end the year.
3. The rate of home value growth varied greatly across different cities, with Perth experiencing a 15.2% surge and regional Victoria seeing a -1.6% fall.
4. The pace of growth in Melbourne and Sydney slowed after rate hikes in June and November, with Melbourne values declining in November and December, while Sydney values stabilized with a monthly growth rate of just 0.2% in the final two months of the year.
5. Capital cities generally saw stronger growth conditions compared to regional areas, with dwelling values up 9.3% in the combined capital cities index, more than double the 4.4% rise in the combined regional index. Regional migration trends have normalized, and the affordability of regional markets has decreased due to significant capital gains in previous years.
A Comprehensive Analysis of the Property Market’s Performance in 2023
CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) recorded an 8.1% increase in 2023, marking a significant recovery from the 4.9% decline in 2022, although still below the 24.5% surge in 2021. This growth, culminating in a modest 0.4% rise in December, reflects a resilient property market in the face of various economic challenges.
Monthly Growth Trends and Economic Influences
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s Research Director, noted that the smallest gain in the national monthly HVI since February occurred in December. The peak in monthly home value growth was 1.3% in May, but subsequent rate hikes and ongoing economic pressures, such as cost of living and affordability challenges, have cooled the market in the latter half of the year.
Regional Variations in Housing Values
The annual change in housing values varied significantly across regions, with Perth experiencing a 15.2% surge, while regional Victoria saw a 1.6% decline. Capital cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane maintained strong growth, while Melbourne and Sydney experienced a slowdown post the June rate hike.
Capital Cities vs. Regional Markets
Capital cities generally outperformed regional areas, with the combined capital cities index up by 9.3% compared to a 4.4% rise in the combined regional index. This shift indicates a reversal of the early COVID trend, which favored regional markets due to strong internal migration.
Housing Affordability and Supply Factors
Lawless attributed the diversity in capital city growth rates to factors like housing affordability and advertised supply levels. Cities with less pressing affordability challenges and lower supply levels, like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane, saw higher growth rates.
Future Outlook and Market Dynamics
Despite the overall rise in housing values, five of the eight capitals are still recording values below their record highs. This situation highlights the ongoing challenges in the property market, including affordability issues and the impact of economic factors on housing demand and supply.
Conclusion
The Australian property market in 2023 demonstrated resilience, with an overall increase in home values despite economic headwinds. The variations across regions and cities reflect the complex interplay of factors influencing the market, from affordability and supply to changing migration patterns. As the market continues to evolve, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for stakeholders in navigating the real estate landscape.