️ Highlights:
1. Australian dwelling values have surpassed their previous peak and reached a new record high, according to CoreLogic’s national daily HVI.
2. After a downturn, national home values fell by -7.5% and reached a floor on January 29, 2023. Since then, the market has recovered and risen by 8.1% to reach a new record high on November 22, 2023.
3. The recovery in housing values can be attributed to an imbalance between supply and demand. Advertised stock levels have remained low throughout 2023, while demand based on home sales has remained steady.
4. Housing market conditions vary across different regions. Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane, as well as their regional counterparts, have reached record highs. In contrast, Hobart and Regional Victoria are still below their peak values.
5. While the news is positive for homeowners, prospective buyers are facing affordability pressures due to rising values, high interest rates, and serviceability challenges. However, the pace of growth is slowing in some markets as inventory levels increase and demand remains fragile.
A Detailed Analysis of the Australian Housing Market’s Resilient Upturn
In a remarkable turn of events, the Australian housing market has demonstrated a resilient recovery, with CoreLogic’s National Home Value Index (HVI) reaching a new record high in November 2023. This blog post delves into the dynamics of this V-shaped recovery, exploring the factors that have contributed to this rebound and its implications for the housing market.
The Path to Recovery
- Regaining Lost Ground: After a peak in April 2022, national home values experienced a 7.5% decline, finding a trough on January 29, 2023. Since then, the National HVI has risen by 8.1%, surpassing the previous peak and setting a new record high on November 22, 2023.
- Rapid Turnaround: This recovery, taking approximately ten months from the downturn’s trough, is particularly noteworthy given the backdrop of high interest rates, deeply pessimistic consumer sentiment, and escalating cost of living pressures.
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: CoreLogic’s Executive Research Director, Tim Lawless, attributes this recovery to a significant imbalance between supply and demand. Advertised stock levels have remained remarkably low throughout 2023, with listings still 16.6% below the previous five-year average nationally.
Diverging Market Conditions
- Regional Variations: While the national index indicates overall growth, there is a growing diversity in housing market conditions across different regions. Cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane, along with their regional counterparts, have reached new peaks. In contrast, Hobart and regional Victoria are still below their record highs.
- Affordability Pressures: As housing values continue to rise in most regions, affordability pressures are intensifying, especially amid high interest rates and serviceability challenges. However, the pace of growth is showing signs of easing in some markets as advertised stock levels rise and purchasing demand remains fragile.
Navigating the Evolving Housing Landscape
The Australian housing market’s V-shaped recovery, as evidenced by CoreLogic’s National Home Value Index, highlights the resilience and dynamism of the sector. While this is positive news for homeowners, it also brings to the forefront the challenges of affordability and market diversity. Prospective buyers and industry stakeholders must navigate this evolving landscape with a keen understanding of regional variations and market trends.