Record Immigration and Its Impact on Australia’s Housing Market

️ Highlights:

1. Net overseas migration into Australia continues to break records, with 145,550 net arrivals in the September quarter, more than double the previous year’s figures.

2. Over the year to September, there were a record high of 429,580 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia.

3. The ABS’ monthly net arrivals figures are strongly correlated with Australia’s official quarterly net overseas migration data.

4. Preliminary monthly visa data shows that net visa arrivals remain high, although slightly lower than the peak in July.

5. The influx of migrants is exacerbating Australia’s housing crisis, with a record low rental vacancy rate and soaring rental inflation, leading to severe financial stress for Australians and an increase in group housing and homelessness.

Exploring the Unprecedented Surge in Immigration and Its Effects on Housing

The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals a record-breaking trend in net overseas migration (NOM) to Australia, with significant implications for the housing market. This blog post examines the data and its potential impact on Australia’s already strained housing sector.

Record-High Immigration Figures

1. Historic Levels of Immigration: The ABS reported a record 145,550 net permanent and long-term arrivals in Australia during the September quarter, more than double the figure from the same quarter in 2022. Over the year to September, there was a record high of 429,580 net permanent and long-term arrivals.
2. Correlation with Official NOM Data: There is a strong historical correlation between these monthly figures and Australia’s official quarterly NOM, which is released with a six-month lag. Preliminary monthly visa data up to October indicates that net visa arrivals remain at exceptionally high levels, though slightly moderated from their peak in July.

The Housing Market Crisis

1. Impact on Rental Market and Housing Supply: This surge in immigration is occurring concurrently with a housing market already suffering from record low rental vacancy rates and soaring rental inflation, as reported by CoreLogic. The actual housing supply has collapsed to around decade lows.
2. Worsening Housing Crisis: The influx of migrants, coupled with the low housing supply, is expected to exacerbate the housing crisis. This situation is likely to send more Australians into severe financial stress, forcing many into group housing or homelessness.
3. Government’s Role in the Crisis: The data suggests that the federal government’s policies have significantly contributed to this crisis, with rapid immigration inflows occurring in a period of constrained housing supply.

Addressing the Housing Market Challenges

The record levels of immigration to Australia present a complex challenge for the housing market, which is already under significant strain. The need for strategic planning and policy intervention to balance immigration with housing supply is more critical than ever to prevent further escalation of the housing crisis.