️ Highlights:
1. Brisbane’s housing market has performed strongly since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, with dwelling values increasing by 51% since March 2020.
2. Housing demand in South East Queensland is outpacing supply, leading to concerns over the shortage of residential lots to accommodate the rising population.
3. Queensland’s population has experienced a significant increase, driven by both net overseas migration and internal migration.
4. Dwelling construction in Queensland has declined, exacerbating the housing shortage.
5. NAB predicts further growth in Brisbane’s dwelling values, with a forecasted growth of 12.1% in 2023 and 6.5% in 2024. Brisbane’s housing market is relatively affordable compared to Sydney and Melbourne, making it an attractive option for buyers. The upcoming 2032 Olympics will also contribute to infrastructure investment and international interest in the city.
Overview
Brisbane’s housing market has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with PropTrack reporting a 51% increase in dwelling values since March 2020. This growth has been predominantly led by the detached house segment, which saw a 56% rise. The demand for housing continues to outstrip supply in South East Queensland, creating a favorable environment for further price increases.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
Research by RPM Group Queensland highlights a significant gap between housing demand and the supply of residential lots in the region. For instance, Logan, located south of Brisbane, is grappling with the need to develop over 4,330 residential lots annually to meet the burgeoning demand—a target that is currently not being met, as evidenced by the mere 1,800 lots registered last year.
Population Growth and Housing Shortage
Queensland’s population surged by a record 124,200 (2.35%) in the year to March 2023, fueled by substantial net overseas and internal migration. However, actual dwelling construction in Queensland has plummeted, exacerbating the housing shortage.
Market Projections
In light of these factors, the National Australia Bank (NAB) has released optimistic house price forecasts for Brisbane, projecting dwelling value growth of 12.1% in 2023 and a further 6.5% in 2024. Brisbane’s housing affordability relative to Sydney and Melbourne, coupled with the upcoming 2032 Olympics, which is expected to spur infrastructure development and global interest, sets the stage for a potential house price boom in Brisbane.
Conclusion
The confluence of sustained population growth, a shortfall in housing supply, and significant upcoming international events presents a strong case for continued growth in Brisbane’s housing market into 2024. For a detailed analysis and further insights into Brisbane’s property market trajectory, the full article by Leith Van Onselen, Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super, can be accessed directly.