️ Highlights:
1. ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence increased by 1.7 points in October to 88.1, with mixed movements across different questions.
2. The question about expected economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole saw the biggest jump.
3. The indicator for buying a major household item decreased by 4% points to 20%, indicating a decrease in retail activity.
4. Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell by 2 points, with 22% of New Zealanders claiming to be better off financially than last year, and 47% claiming to be worse off.
5. Expectations of being better off financially in the future increased by 1 point, while the perception of the economic outlook in 12 months’ time improved by 14 points to -18%.
Executive Summary
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index in New Zealand has recorded an increase of 1.7 points, reaching 88.1 in October 2023. This rise is characterized by varied responses to the survey’s questions, with the most significant increase observed in the expectations for New Zealand’s economic conditions. However, the indicator for the best time to purchase major household items has declined, suggesting a cautious consumer spending outlook.
Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators
The survey revealed a notable jump in optimism for the economic outlook over the next 12 months, with a 14-point increase in the number of New Zealanders expecting good times economically. In contrast, the perception of current personal financial situations has slightly declined. The future conditions index, which is forward-looking, rose by 6 points, while the current conditions index saw a 4-point decrease.
Inflation Expectations and Spending Trends
Inflation expectations for October edged up by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, reversing most of the decline from the previous month. The net sentiment regarding the timing for buying major household items worsened, with a 6-point drop, aligning with the ongoing softness in per capita retail spending.
Regional and Housing Price Expectations
Expectations for house price inflation have increased, reaching the highest level in 20 months. This uptick was observed in all regions except the North Island outside of Auckland and Wellington. Additionally, two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations have risen, undoing most of the fall experienced in the previous month.
Conclusion
The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence survey for October 2023 indicates a cautiously optimistic consumer outlook, with a mixed view on personal finances and broader economic conditions. The detailed findings and implications of this survey are available for those seeking to understand the nuances of consumer sentiment in New Zealand.